Chapter 1: the working context

Increase in traffic

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These are increases in the numbers of vehicles; the increase in the usage of vehicles (i.e, traffic) may well be in a greater proportion than this. Not only is usage held at an artificially low level at present by congested road conditions, but American experience shows that as vehicles increase in numbers the usage per vehicle also tends to increase- at any rate up to the point at which there is an average of one car per family. On the basis of these figures, therefore, traffic may be more than trebled in a little over twenty years. This forecast, however, is for the country as a whole, it does not follow that urban traffic will be trebled everywhere; indeed there are likely to be important differences in the amount of increase as between urban, suburban and country districts. On the other hand, with the great increase of car ownership, peak-period traffic flows associated with towns may be more than trebled, There are also likely to be considerable differences between various parts of the country. In particular, the rate of increase in south-east England looks like being much faster than the national average unless some more far- reaching national policy for preventing it is adopted than yet seems to be in sight.

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It will be asked what certainty there is that these very considerable, and in the circumstances of this small country, somewhat intimidating, increases of vehicles and traffic will really come about. The answer appears to be, on the assumption that the population increases in accordance with the forecasts, that an increase up to a total of 25 million vehicles (including 17½ million cars, or an average of one car per family) must be regarded as virtually certain. Beyond this, the increase is perhaps more speculative. On the other hand it is our view that nothing would be more dangerous at this critical stage in planning for the new mobility offered by the motor vehicle, than to underestimate its potential. Most previous studies have failed in this way. It does seem possible now to look ahead to the full development of the situation, and this is what we have endeavoured to do, preferring the risk that we have slightly overestimated to the accusation that we have failed to foresee the trend, or have deliberately glossed it over in order to make it seem less alarming or less demanding of expenditure on capital works.

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Two rough checks can be applied to these forecasts. First, a comparison can be made between the present number of licensed drivers (in 1962, 12-9 million including T-6 million provisional licence holders) and the potential number in the year 2010. The latter figure, based on a population of 74 millions, and allowing for people infirm, in hospital, in prison, disqualified, etc., and assuming the licensable age as between 16 and 70 years, would be unlikely to exceed 47.5 millions. At a ratio of one vehicle for each licensed driver (a somewhat higher figure than at present) the total number of vehicles would be 47.5 millions. This probably represents the extreme limit of possibility. In practice it is very unlikely that everyone potentially capable of holding a driving licence would in fact do so. Assuming that only 75% do so, and again taking the ratio of vehicles to licensed drivers at I : I, then the total number of vehicles would be about 36 millions. Secondly, a direct comparison with American figures shows that if the present ratio of 410 vehicles per 1000 persons which obtains in the United States, were to be applied to a population of 74 millions in this country the number of vehicles would be about 30 millions. But if the expected U.S, saturation level of 550 vehicles/1000 persons is applied the total here would reach 41 millions.